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一半美国人认为财务状况比一年前更糟

一半美国人认为财务状况比一年前更糟

根据盖洛普的最新年度调查，一半的美国人表示，他们的财务状况比一年前更糟，这是自2009年以来人数最多的一次。但并不是每个人都感到手头拮据，35%的人表示他们的生活比一年前好了。

自从盖洛普在1976年首次开展这种调查以来，很少发生一半或以上的美国人说他们的生活更糟的情况。唯一一次出现这种情况是在2008年和2009年的衰退时期。

2022年的高通胀、利率上升和股市看跌都对美国人的财务状况和经济安全感造成了影响。

据美国政府网站报道，美国2月初首次申请失业救济人数增加1.3万人，达到19.6万人。

新冠疫情导致的供应链中断以及俄罗斯入侵乌克兰推高了能源和食品价格。去年12月消费者价格指数(cpi)同比增长6.6%，低于2022年6月9%的40年高点。

在所有收入水平中，约61%的低收入美国人 (年收入低于4万美元的家庭)说，他们的财务状况在过去一年有所恶化，26%的人说财务状况有所改善，11%的人说没有变化。

调查发现，表示财政状况比去年更糟的共和党人多于民主党人，61%的共和党人和37%的民主党人说他们的财政状况比去年更糟。政治评论人士指出，这可能反映了受访者对占据白宫的政党的支持。

疫情时期的政府福利即将结束

许多人面临着双重打击，家庭失去了疫情期间的大量政府福利，而物价继续上涨。在疫情期间帮助了许多父母的儿童税收抵免已于去年到期。在大多数州，与公共卫生紧急情况有关的补充营养援助计划(SNAP)的扩大版将于2月28日结束。包括阿拉斯加和田纳西州在内的超过15个州已经结束了这种所谓的紧急分配。

高利率、信用卡债务和熊市股市

与此同时，高昂的物价促使更多的美国人依赖信用卡。根据TransUnion本月早些时候发布的一份报告，2022年第四季度信用卡余额达到创纪录的9310亿美元，比上年增长18.5%。由于美联储在2022年7次上调基准利率以遏制通货膨胀，现在借钱和偿还债务的成本更高。在上周再次上调25个基点后，联邦基金利率目前为4.5%至4.75%，为2007年10月以来的最高水平。

2022年，三大股指都遭遇了自2008年以来最糟糕的一年(按百分比计算)。道琼斯工业平均指数在2022年下跌了8.8%，标准普尔500指数下跌了19.4%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌了33.1%。

盖洛普的报告显示，尽管感觉比去年更糟，但大多数美国人(60%)表示，他们对未来一年保持乐观。

联合国新近发布的《2023年世界经济形势与展望》说，2022年，世界经济遭遇了一系列严重且相互叠加的冲击。在新冠疫情的影响仍在世界各地回荡的情况下，乌克兰战争引发了一场新的危机，扰乱了粮食和能源市场，使许多发展中国家的粮食不安全和营养不良更加恶化。高通货膨胀导致实际收入被侵蚀，并引发全球生活费用危机，使数以百万计的民众陷入贫困和经济困境。与此同时，气候危机继续造成沉重的代价，热浪、野火、洪水和飓风在许多国家造成了巨大的经济损失，并产生了人道主义危机。

所有这些冲击将给2023年的世界经济带来巨大影响。持续的高通货膨胀，在2022年平均约达9%，促使许多发达国家和发展中国家大幅抽紧银根。快速加息，特别是美利坚合众国联邦储备银行的快速加息，产生了全球溢出效应，引发了发展中国家的资本外流和货币贬值，增加了国际收支压力，加剧了债务可持续性风险。在私人和公共债务高企的情况下，融资条件急剧收紧，推高了偿债成本，限制了财政空间，增加了主权信用风险。利率上升和购买力下降削弱了消费者信心和投资者情绪，使世界经济的近期增长前景进一步蒙上阴影。由于对消费品的需求逐渐减少、旷日持久的乌克兰战争以及持续的供应链挑战，全球贸易已经疲软。

在此背景下，世界产出增长预计将从2022年的约3%降至2023年的仅1.9%，这是近几十年来最低的增长率之一。如果像预期的那样，一些宏观经济逆风在明年开始消退，全球增长预计将在2024年温和回升至2.7%。

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