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全球经济增长预测下调：IMF报告警示

国际货币基金组织（IMF）2023年4月11日发布的《世界经济展望》报告显示，全球经济前景充满不确定性，经济增长预测再次下调。在金融部门动荡、通货膨胀高位运行、俄乌战争冲击持续以及新冠疫情进入第四年的影响下，IMF预计2023年全球经济增长率为2.8%，比此前预测下调了0.1个百分点。

尽管中国经济在重新开放后正在强劲反弹，供应链扰动正在缓解，战争导致的能源和粮食市场混乱正在消退，但IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔·奥利维尔·古兰沙（Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas）警告称，经济表面上的迹象掩盖了暗流涌动，形势相当脆弱，”正如最近一波银行业动荡所提醒我们的那样”。

报告显示，疫情给经济带来的长期创伤、结构性改革步伐放缓、地缘经济割裂的威胁加剧、贸易矛盾增多、直接投资减少、全球分裂为不同的“集团”，且在这种环境下开展创新和采用技术的速度放慢等因素都导致了经济前景疲软。

基金组织指出，政策制定者面前的道路十分狭窄：既要改善经济前景，又要尽可能减少风险。各国央行需要坚持实施对抗通胀的紧缩政策立场，但同时，它们也需要做好准备，根据形势变化调整并运用其全部政策工具，包括以此应对金融稳定问题。财政政策制定者应给予支持，政府应着眼于维持整体紧缩的政策立场，同时为受生活成本危机影响最大的群体提供有针对性的支持。

报告呼吁加强多边合作，包括加强全球金融安全网、降低气候变化成本以及减轻地缘经济割裂的不利影响，对推动建设更具韧性的世界经济至关重要。

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