埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)近日警告称，银行业的动荡可能会蔓延到住房和商业房地产市场。
“这是迄今为止最严重的迫在眉睫的问题，”他在推特上写道。“抵押贷款。”
特斯拉、推特和太空探索技术公司SpaceX的首席执行官在回应《小贝西信》(The kobbeissi Letter)时表示，创纪录的2.5万亿美元商业房地产债务将在未来五年内到期。
许多借款人可能会在利率大幅上升、入住率下降、融资收紧以及对经济衰退的担忧加剧导致资产价格承压的情况下违约。市场评论称，美国大约70%的CRE债务由较小的银行持有，如果这些违约发生，它们将面临重大损失。
与此同时，Genevieve Roch-Decter几天前在推特上表示，硅谷银行的崩溃“只是冰山一角”——银行资产负债表上的CRE贷款是“更大的定时炸弹”。
这位金融专家警告说，由于借贷成本上升，贷款违约可能会增加，房地产价格可能会因为需求疲软而下跌。银行的综合房地产投资组合可能因此价值暴跌，迫使银行筹集新资本以支撑其财务状况。正是这种情况吓坏了SVB的储户，引发了挤兑，并促使联邦政府接管了这家银行。
“这才是真正的问题，”马斯克回应道。“许多城市的写字楼空置率都很高。如果房价大幅下跌，抵押贷款投资组合也会面临风险。”
这位科技亿万富翁似乎担心，银行的商业房地产贷款和抵押贷款可能会贬值。他似乎担心，更高的利率、更严格的贷款标准、迫在眉睫的经济衰退以及远程办公的趋势可能会给某些房产的需求带来压力，拉低价格，引发一波违约潮，并对持有这些贷款的机构造成沉重打击。
比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)最近强调了小型贷款机构在建筑和房地产行业发挥的关键作用。这位亿万富翁投资者和潘兴广场首席执行官警告说，如果储户把钱从这些银行取出来，可能会阻碍对这些行业的贷款，并导致严重的经济放缓。
最近几天，华尔街的两大巨头也敲响了警钟。美国银行表示，华润创业可能是市场和经济”下一只倒下的鞋子”，而摩根大通则暗示，贷款违约激增可能导致银行业损失380亿美元。
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