国际民航组织秘书长萨拉萨尔 (Juan Carlos Salazar) 表示:“我们对2023年航空客运情况的预测是建立在2022年强劲的复苏势头的基础上。各国政府通过国际民航组织达成协议,承诺到2030年实现零事故死亡以及到2050年实现零碳排放的目标,这些目标将发挥关键作用,引导后续的进展并将国际民航组织的实施支持举措作为优先事项。”
航空客运:快速复苏
国际民航组织的数据分析显示,2022年大多数国际航线快速复苏,全球航空客运量相比2021年增长了约47%,收入客公里数同比增长约70%。如果将收益率和汇率按照2019年的水平计算,航空公司2022年的客运收入相比2021年增长了50%。
与国际民航组织早先的预测一致,航空客运需求的强劲复苏推动2022年的客运量估计达到新冠疫情前水平的74%,客运收入估计已达到2019年水平的68%左右。2022年投入使用的客机数量反映了整体交通量的恢复情况,目前大约是疫情前水平的75%。
2022年,主要的飞机制造商空客 (Airbus) 和波音 (Boeing) 的飞机订单和交付量与2021年相比分别增长了53%和20%。2022年的订单数量达到2019年以来历史新高,表明飞机需求正在复苏。
航空货运:长期的强劲增长
2022年航空货运情况估计与2021年持平,但与疫情前的水平相比仍有小幅增长。然而,鉴于全球经济增长放缓,2023年航空货运增长预计也将放缓,但长期来看仍符合先前预测的趋势,将迎来强劲增长。
展望未来,航空公司在连续三年亏损后,有望在2023年最后一个季度恢复盈利。预计2024年航空客运需求将更强劲,比2019年的水平高出约4%,这意味着航空业2019-2024年的复合年增长率将达到0.7%。
但国际民航组织也提醒道,这一系列预测基于这样一个前提,即当前影响国际航运的风险因素不会从当前的水平进一步升级。
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