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2023年航空客运需求预计将实现全面复苏和可持续增长

2023年航空客运需求预计将实现全面复苏和可持续增长

通过先进的大数据分析，国际民用航空组织预测大多数航线的航空客运需求将在2023年第一季度迅速恢复到新冠疫情前的水平，年底会在2019年的基础上实现3%的增长。

国际民航组织理事会主席夏基塔诺 (Salvatore Sciacchitano) 表示：“确保航空服务的安全、可靠和可持续复苏至关重要，有利于促进地方、国家乃至全球的可持续发展，帮助各国从新冠疫情的广泛影响中得到恢复。”


国际民航组织秘书长萨拉萨尔 (Juan Carlos Salazar) 表示：“我们对2023年航空客运情况的预测是建立在2022年强劲的复苏势头的基础上。各国政府通过国际民航组织达成协议，承诺到2030年实现零事故死亡以及到2050年实现零碳排放的目标，这些目标将发挥关键作用，引导后续的进展并将国际民航组织的实施支持举措作为优先事项。”

航空客运：快速复苏

 

国际民航组织的数据分析显示，2022年大多数国际航线快速复苏，全球航空客运量相比2021年增长了约47%，收入客公里数同比增长约70%。如果将收益率和汇率按照2019年的水平计算，航空公司2022年的客运收入相比2021年增长了50%。

与国际民航组织早先的预测一致，航空客运需求的强劲复苏推动2022年的客运量估计达到新冠疫情前水平的74%，客运收入估计已达到2019年水平的68%左右。2022年投入使用的客机数量反映了整体交通量的恢复情况，目前大约是疫情前水平的75%。

2022年，主要的飞机制造商空客 (Airbus) 和波音 (Boeing) 的飞机订单和交付量与2021年相比分别增长了53%和20%。2022年的订单数量达到2019年以来历史新高，表明飞机需求正在复苏。

航空货运：长期的强劲增长

 

2022年航空货运情况估计与2021年持平，但与疫情前的水平相比仍有小幅增长。然而，鉴于全球经济增长放缓，2023年航空货运增长预计也将放缓，但长期来看仍符合先前预测的趋势，将迎来强劲增长。

展望未来，航空公司在连续三年亏损后，有望在2023年最后一个季度恢复盈利。预计2024年航空客运需求将更强劲，比2019年的水平高出约4%，这意味着航空业2019-2024年的复合年增长率将达到0.7%。

但国际民航组织也提醒道，这一系列预测基于这样一个前提，即当前影响国际航运的风险因素不会从当前的水平进一步升级。

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